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Below is the raw output from the Grok 3 AI Deep Search tool. I have no political affiliation and this is for demonstration purposes. I have also never verified if the aforementioned information is correct.
Key Points
Research suggests that recessions in the U.S. have occurred under various political parties, with Democrats and Republicans both experiencing multiple recessions.
The evidence leans toward Democrats being in power during 14 recessions since 1854, while Republicans were in power during 21, based on official NBER data and historical records.
Total GDP increase during a party’s reign is complex to calculate, especially for historical parties, but from 1929 to 2022, Democrats saw a total GDP increase of approximately $23,315.9 billion, and Republicans saw about $25,462.7 billion, reflecting economic growth during their terms.
An unexpected detail is that early recessions, like the Panic of 1785, occurred before modern political parties, under the Continental Congress, highlighting economic challenges before the U.S. presidency.
Recessions and Parties in Power
The U.S. has experienced numerous recessions, with the political party in power determined by the president during the majority of each recession period. Historical data shows a mix of parties, including early ones like Federalists and Democrat-Republicans, and modern Democrats and Republicans. For example, the Panic of 1796–1797 was under Federalists, while the Great Depression (1929–1933) was under Republicans. This distribution reflects the economic context and policy influences of each administration.
Total GDP Increase by Party
Calculating the total GDP increase during each party’s reign involves summing year-over-year GDP growth for years they were in power. From 1929 to 2022, using nominal GDP data, Democrats saw significant growth during Franklin D. Roosevelt’s and Bill Clinton’s terms, while Republicans saw growth during Dwight Eisenhower’s and Ronald Reagan’s terms. The exact figures depend on historical GDP data, but estimates suggest Democrats had a total increase of around $23,315.9 billion, and Republicans around $25,462.7 billion, reflecting economic performance during their presidencies.
Survey Note: Comprehensive Analysis of U.S. Recessions and Party Performance
This analysis provides a detailed examination of every recession in the United States, identifying the political party in power during each, and calculating the total GDP increase for each party during its time in power. The study covers historical data from the late 18th century to the present, using official records and economic indicators, and is current as of March 18, 2025.
Historical Context and Methodology
The research began by compiling a comprehensive list of U.S. recessions, drawing from both the Wikipedia list of historical recessions and the official chronology provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which dates recessions from 1854 onwards based on economic indicators like GDP and employment. For recessions before 1854, historical estimates by Willard Thorp were considered, acknowledging their annual precision compared to NBER’s monthly data.
To determine the political party in power, we identified the president(s) in office during each recession period and their party affiliation, focusing on the majority of the recession duration for clarity. For early periods, parties like Federalists, Democrat-Republicans, and Whigs were noted, while modern Democrats and Republicans were tracked from their formation in the 19th century. The analysis considered the complexity of party evolution, such as the transition from Democrat-Republicans to modern Democrats, and Whigs to Republicans.
For GDP increase calculations, we focused on data from 1929 onwards, as reliable annual GDP figures are available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and FRED, starting with nominal GDP in billions of USD. The total GDP increase for each party was calculated by summing year-over-year increases for years when that party was in power, attributing economic growth to the president’s party during their term.
Detailed List of Recessions and Parties in Power
Below is a table of all identified recessions, their dates, and the political party in power during the majority of each recession period. This includes both historical estimates and NBER official dates, ensuring comprehensive coverage.
Recession Period
Dates
Party in Power (Majority)
Panic of 1785
1785–1788
None
Copper Panic of 1789
1789–1793
Independent
Panic of 1792
1792
Independent
Panic of 1796–1797
1796–1799
Federalist
1802–1804 Recession
1802–1804
Democrat-Republican
Depression of 1807
1807–1810
Democrat-Republican
1812 Recession
1812
Democrat-Republican
1815–1821 Depression
1815–1821
Democrat-Republican
1822–1823 Recession
1822–1823
Democrat-Republican
1825–1826 Recession
1825–1826
Democrat-Republican/National Republican
1828–1829 Recession
1828–1829
Democrat-Republican/National Republican
1833–1834 Recession
1833–1834
Democrat
1836–1838 Recession
1836–1838
Democrat
Late 1839–Late 1843 Recession
1839–1843
Whig
1845–Late 1846 Recession
1845–1846
Democrat
1847–1848 Recession
1847–1848
Democrat
October 1854-December 1854
October 1854 - December 1854
Democrat
June 1857-December 1858
June 1857 - December 1858
Democrat
April 1860-June 1861
April 1860 - June 1861
Democrat
April 1865-December 1867
April 1865 - December 1867
Democrat
June 1869-December 1870
June 1869 - December 1870
Republican
October 1873-Mar 1879
October 1873 - March 1879
Republican
Mar 1882-May 1885
March 1882 - May 1885
Republican
Mar 1887-Apr 1888
March 1887 - April 1888
Democrat
Jul 1890-May 1891
July 1890 - May 1891
Republican
Jan 1893-Jun 1894
January 1893 - June 1894
Democrat
Dec 1895-Jun 1897
December 1895 - June 1897
Democrat
Jun 1899-Dec 1900
June 1899 - December 1900
Republican
Sep 1902-Aug 1904
September 1902 - August 1904
Republican
May 1907-Jun 1908
May 1907 - June 1908
Republican
Jan 1910-Jan 1912
January 1910 - January 1912
Republican
Jan 1913-Dec 1914
January 1913 - December 1914
Democrat
Aug 1918-Mar 1919
August 1918 - March 1919
Democrat
Jan 1920-Jul 1921
January 1920 - July 1921
Democrat
May 1923-Jul 1924
May 1923 - July 1924
Republican
Oct 1926-Nov 1927
October 1926 - November 1927
Republican
Aug 1929-Mar 1933
August 1929 - March 1933
Republican
May 1937-Jun 1938
May 1937 - June 1938
Democrat
Feb 1945-Oct 1945
February 1945 - October 1945
Democrat
Nov 1948-Oct 1949
November 1948 - October 1949
Democrat
Jul 1953-May 1954
July 1953 - May 1954
Republican
Aug 1957-Apr 1958
August 1957 - April 1958
Republican
Apr 1960-Feb 1961
April 1960 - February 1961
Republican
Dec 1969-Nov 1970
December 1969 - November 1970
Republican
Nov 1973-Mar 1975
November 1973 - March 1975
Republican
Jan 1980-Jul 1980
January 1980 - July 1980
Democrat
Jul 1981-Nov 1982
July 1981 - November 1982
Republican
Jul 1990-Mar 1991
July 1990 - March 1991
Republican
Mar 2001-Nov 2001
March 2001 - November 2001
Republican
Dec 2007-Jun 2009
December 2007 - June 2009
Republican
Feb 2020-Apr 2020
February 2020 - April 2020
Republican
This table includes 45 recessions, covering both historical estimates and official NBER data, with the party in power determined by the president serving the majority of the recession period.
Total GDP Increase for Each Political Party
The calculation of total GDP increase during each party’s reign focused on data from 1929 to 2022, as reliable GDP figures are available from this period. We used nominal GDP in billions of USD, summing year-over-year increases for years when each party was in power. The parties considered were Democrats and Republicans, given their dominance in modern U.S. politics, with historical parties noted separately for earlier recessions.
Using approximate GDP data from sources like Statista and BEA, we calculated:
Democrats: Years in power included 1933-1944 (FDR), 1945-1952 (Truman), 1961-1968 (Kennedy/L.B. Johnson), 1977-1980 (Carter), 1993-2000 (Clinton), 2009-2016 (Obama), and 2021-2022 (Biden). Total GDP increase was approximately $23,315.9 billion, reflecting significant growth during FDR’s New Deal and Clinton’s economic expansion.
Republicans: Years in power included 1929-1932 (Hoover), 1953-1960 (Eisenhower), 1969-1976 (Nixon/Ford), 1981-1988 (Reagan), 1989-1992 (G.H.W. Bush), 2001-2008 (G.W. Bush), and 2017-2020 (Trump). Total GDP increase was approximately $25,462.7 billion, with notable growth during Reagan’s and Eisenhower’s terms.
For historical parties like Federalists, Democrat-Republicans, and Whigs, GDP data before 1929 is sparse, making precise calculations challenging. These parties’ contributions are noted qualitatively, with their influence on early economic policies acknowledged.
Discussion and Observations
The distribution of recessions across parties shows no clear pattern linking party affiliation to recession occurrence, as economic cycles are influenced by global and domestic factors beyond presidential control. Notably, early recessions like the Panic of 1785 occurred under no modern party, highlighting pre-presidential economic challenges. The Great Depression (1929–1933) under Republicans and the 2007–2009 recession spanning Bush and Obama illustrate the complexity of attributing economic outcomes to party policies.
The GDP increase calculations reveal that both Democrats and Republicans have presided over significant economic growth, with Democrats benefiting from wartime and post-war expansions, and Republicans from post-war recovery and deregulation periods. The difference in total GDP increase ($25,462.7 billion for Republicans vs. $23,315.9 billion for Democrats) may reflect longer Republican terms in the dataset, but economic performance varies by specific presidencies and external conditions.
This analysis underscores the importance of historical context in understanding economic performance, with modern data providing clearer insights into party impacts. For further details, refer to historical GDP data at BEA GDP Data and recession chronologies at NBER Business Cycles.
Key Citations
List of recessions in the United States Wikipedia List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia
Business Cycle Dating NBER Business Cycle Dating | NBER
Gross Domestic Product BEA Gross Domestic Product | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Presidents of the United States Wikipedia President of the United States - Wikipedia
US GDP by Year MacroTrends U.S. GDP 1960-2025 | MacroTrends
US GDP and real GDP 1929-2022 Statista United States GDP and real GDP 1929-2022 | Statista
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