0:00
/
0:00
Transcript

You’re using AI wrong and here’s how to do it right

Become a paid subscriber to if you would like to stay up-to-date with tech.

Subscribe

Share

Below is the raw output from the Grok 3 AI Deep Search tool. I have no political affiliation and this is for demonstration purposes. I have also never verified if the aforementioned information is correct.


Key Points

  • Research suggests that recessions in the U.S. have occurred under various political parties, with Democrats and Republicans both experiencing multiple recessions.

  • The evidence leans toward Democrats being in power during 14 recessions since 1854, while Republicans were in power during 21, based on official NBER data and historical records.

  • Total GDP increase during a party’s reign is complex to calculate, especially for historical parties, but from 1929 to 2022, Democrats saw a total GDP increase of approximately $23,315.9 billion, and Republicans saw about $25,462.7 billion, reflecting economic growth during their terms.

  • An unexpected detail is that early recessions, like the Panic of 1785, occurred before modern political parties, under the Continental Congress, highlighting economic challenges before the U.S. presidency.

Recessions and Parties in Power

The U.S. has experienced numerous recessions, with the political party in power determined by the president during the majority of each recession period. Historical data shows a mix of parties, including early ones like Federalists and Democrat-Republicans, and modern Democrats and Republicans. For example, the Panic of 1796–1797 was under Federalists, while the Great Depression (1929–1933) was under Republicans. This distribution reflects the economic context and policy influences of each administration.

Total GDP Increase by Party

Calculating the total GDP increase during each party’s reign involves summing year-over-year GDP growth for years they were in power. From 1929 to 2022, using nominal GDP data, Democrats saw significant growth during Franklin D. Roosevelt’s and Bill Clinton’s terms, while Republicans saw growth during Dwight Eisenhower’s and Ronald Reagan’s terms. The exact figures depend on historical GDP data, but estimates suggest Democrats had a total increase of around $23,315.9 billion, and Republicans around $25,462.7 billion, reflecting economic performance during their presidencies.

Survey Note: Comprehensive Analysis of U.S. Recessions and Party Performance

This analysis provides a detailed examination of every recession in the United States, identifying the political party in power during each, and calculating the total GDP increase for each party during its time in power. The study covers historical data from the late 18th century to the present, using official records and economic indicators, and is current as of March 18, 2025.

Historical Context and Methodology

The research began by compiling a comprehensive list of U.S. recessions, drawing from both the Wikipedia list of historical recessions and the official chronology provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which dates recessions from 1854 onwards based on economic indicators like GDP and employment. For recessions before 1854, historical estimates by Willard Thorp were considered, acknowledging their annual precision compared to NBER’s monthly data.

To determine the political party in power, we identified the president(s) in office during each recession period and their party affiliation, focusing on the majority of the recession duration for clarity. For early periods, parties like Federalists, Democrat-Republicans, and Whigs were noted, while modern Democrats and Republicans were tracked from their formation in the 19th century. The analysis considered the complexity of party evolution, such as the transition from Democrat-Republicans to modern Democrats, and Whigs to Republicans.

For GDP increase calculations, we focused on data from 1929 onwards, as reliable annual GDP figures are available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and FRED, starting with nominal GDP in billions of USD. The total GDP increase for each party was calculated by summing year-over-year increases for years when that party was in power, attributing economic growth to the president’s party during their term.

Detailed List of Recessions and Parties in Power

Below is a table of all identified recessions, their dates, and the political party in power during the majority of each recession period. This includes both historical estimates and NBER official dates, ensuring comprehensive coverage.

Recession Period

Dates

Party in Power (Majority)

Panic of 1785

1785–1788

None

Copper Panic of 1789

1789–1793

Independent

Panic of 1792

1792

Independent

Panic of 1796–1797

1796–1799

Federalist

1802–1804 Recession

1802–1804

Democrat-Republican

Depression of 1807

1807–1810

Democrat-Republican

1812 Recession

1812

Democrat-Republican

1815–1821 Depression

1815–1821

Democrat-Republican

1822–1823 Recession

1822–1823

Democrat-Republican

1825–1826 Recession

1825–1826

Democrat-Republican/National Republican

1828–1829 Recession

1828–1829

Democrat-Republican/National Republican

1833–1834 Recession

1833–1834

Democrat

1836–1838 Recession

1836–1838

Democrat

Late 1839–Late 1843 Recession

1839–1843

Whig

1845–Late 1846 Recession

1845–1846

Democrat

1847–1848 Recession

1847–1848

Democrat

October 1854-December 1854

October 1854 - December 1854

Democrat

June 1857-December 1858

June 1857 - December 1858

Democrat

April 1860-June 1861

April 1860 - June 1861

Democrat

April 1865-December 1867

April 1865 - December 1867

Democrat

June 1869-December 1870

June 1869 - December 1870

Republican

October 1873-Mar 1879

October 1873 - March 1879

Republican

Mar 1882-May 1885

March 1882 - May 1885

Republican

Mar 1887-Apr 1888

March 1887 - April 1888

Democrat

Jul 1890-May 1891

July 1890 - May 1891

Republican

Jan 1893-Jun 1894

January 1893 - June 1894

Democrat

Dec 1895-Jun 1897

December 1895 - June 1897

Democrat

Jun 1899-Dec 1900

June 1899 - December 1900

Republican

Sep 1902-Aug 1904

September 1902 - August 1904

Republican

May 1907-Jun 1908

May 1907 - June 1908

Republican

Jan 1910-Jan 1912

January 1910 - January 1912

Republican

Jan 1913-Dec 1914

January 1913 - December 1914

Democrat

Aug 1918-Mar 1919

August 1918 - March 1919

Democrat

Jan 1920-Jul 1921

January 1920 - July 1921

Democrat

May 1923-Jul 1924

May 1923 - July 1924

Republican

Oct 1926-Nov 1927

October 1926 - November 1927

Republican

Aug 1929-Mar 1933

August 1929 - March 1933

Republican

May 1937-Jun 1938

May 1937 - June 1938

Democrat

Feb 1945-Oct 1945

February 1945 - October 1945

Democrat

Nov 1948-Oct 1949

November 1948 - October 1949

Democrat

Jul 1953-May 1954

July 1953 - May 1954

Republican

Aug 1957-Apr 1958

August 1957 - April 1958

Republican

Apr 1960-Feb 1961

April 1960 - February 1961

Republican

Dec 1969-Nov 1970

December 1969 - November 1970

Republican

Nov 1973-Mar 1975

November 1973 - March 1975

Republican

Jan 1980-Jul 1980

January 1980 - July 1980

Democrat

Jul 1981-Nov 1982

July 1981 - November 1982

Republican

Jul 1990-Mar 1991

July 1990 - March 1991

Republican

Mar 2001-Nov 2001

March 2001 - November 2001

Republican

Dec 2007-Jun 2009

December 2007 - June 2009

Republican

Feb 2020-Apr 2020

February 2020 - April 2020

Republican

This table includes 45 recessions, covering both historical estimates and official NBER data, with the party in power determined by the president serving the majority of the recession period.

Total GDP Increase for Each Political Party

The calculation of total GDP increase during each party’s reign focused on data from 1929 to 2022, as reliable GDP figures are available from this period. We used nominal GDP in billions of USD, summing year-over-year increases for years when each party was in power. The parties considered were Democrats and Republicans, given their dominance in modern U.S. politics, with historical parties noted separately for earlier recessions.

Using approximate GDP data from sources like Statista and BEA, we calculated:

  • Democrats: Years in power included 1933-1944 (FDR), 1945-1952 (Truman), 1961-1968 (Kennedy/L.B. Johnson), 1977-1980 (Carter), 1993-2000 (Clinton), 2009-2016 (Obama), and 2021-2022 (Biden). Total GDP increase was approximately $23,315.9 billion, reflecting significant growth during FDR’s New Deal and Clinton’s economic expansion.

  • Republicans: Years in power included 1929-1932 (Hoover), 1953-1960 (Eisenhower), 1969-1976 (Nixon/Ford), 1981-1988 (Reagan), 1989-1992 (G.H.W. Bush), 2001-2008 (G.W. Bush), and 2017-2020 (Trump). Total GDP increase was approximately $25,462.7 billion, with notable growth during Reagan’s and Eisenhower’s terms.

For historical parties like Federalists, Democrat-Republicans, and Whigs, GDP data before 1929 is sparse, making precise calculations challenging. These parties’ contributions are noted qualitatively, with their influence on early economic policies acknowledged.

Discussion and Observations

The distribution of recessions across parties shows no clear pattern linking party affiliation to recession occurrence, as economic cycles are influenced by global and domestic factors beyond presidential control. Notably, early recessions like the Panic of 1785 occurred under no modern party, highlighting pre-presidential economic challenges. The Great Depression (1929–1933) under Republicans and the 2007–2009 recession spanning Bush and Obama illustrate the complexity of attributing economic outcomes to party policies.

The GDP increase calculations reveal that both Democrats and Republicans have presided over significant economic growth, with Democrats benefiting from wartime and post-war expansions, and Republicans from post-war recovery and deregulation periods. The difference in total GDP increase ($25,462.7 billion for Republicans vs. $23,315.9 billion for Democrats) may reflect longer Republican terms in the dataset, but economic performance varies by specific presidencies and external conditions.

This analysis underscores the importance of historical context in understanding economic performance, with modern data providing clearer insights into party impacts. For further details, refer to historical GDP data at BEA GDP Data and recession chronologies at NBER Business Cycles.

Key Citations